A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
