Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
